Türkiye's solution to its energy dilemma

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Türkiye sits at a strategically important yet vulnerable position in the eastern Mediterranean.

It owns the Bosphorus Strait, the natural conduit by which fossil fuels are shipped between the Caspian Sea and Europe, and the pipeline by which crude oil from Iraq flows west. The country is heavily dependent on energy imports, particularly thermal coal, to meet its rapidly growing energy needs.

Meanwhile, Türkiye is particularly vulnerable to climate change with persistent drought conditions sapping its hydroelectric reservoirs. On the doorstep to the European Union, Türkiye is also the single most exposed economy to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

How can Türkiye balance the need to rapidly increase its energy supplies, curb its structural energy import dependency, while at the same time, slashing the carbon intensity of its economy?

In this article I show why an intensity-based emissions trading scheme will help Türkiye to navigate its growing energy concerns, while also mitigating its export carbon risk exposure to Europe.

But first, lets take a step back and try and frame Türkiye's current place in the world, and importantly, where it might be in the coming decades. Because although the rapid build-out of AI data centres gets all of the attention right now, its probably not the most important energy challenge of the next few decades.