His father's son

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Climate and environmental policies work best when all participants believe they will remain strong and be there for the long-run. Chopping and changing between leaders, one pro-environment, the other pro-everything but the environment, weakens the incentive for change.

In October 2022, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was re-elected president. In the months that followed his government quickly enacted stronger environmental policies, applied to host the climate conference COP30, and beefed up enforcement efforts aimed at protecting Brazil's tropical rainforest.

The most vivid example of the improvement under President da Silva's leadership has been the decline in deforestation.

Non-fire related forest clearance has declined by 60% since 2022, dropping to the lowest level on record in 2025, according to the World Resources Institute's (WRI) Global Forest Watch initiative. In contrast, former President Jair Bolsonaro oversaw a systematic weakening in environmental protections, exemplified by a doubling in the rate of deforestation during his tenure (see Repricing deforestation risk in the wake of Brazil's presidential election).

The forthcoming general election, scheduled to take place on 4th October 2026, may see Brazil change course once again, and in doing so, risks undoing the progress made under the leadership of President da Silva. With Jair Bolsonaro serving a 27 year sentence for plotting a military coup, the challenge this time will come from his son Flávio.

President da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro are locked in a statistical tie according to the latest poll conducted by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News. The younger Bolsonaro has closed a 12-point lead since he launched his campaign in December. He now has an implied 44% probability of winning the election according to Polymarket, compared to 37% for the incumbent da Silva.

Despite da Silva's progress, agriculture continues to be the most important driver of primary forest loss (73% between 2002-2025), largely to make way for soy and cattle. This could get much worse under the son of Jair Bolsonaro. In late April, Flávio promised to end the Amazon soy moratorium, the 20-year-old voluntary accord that bars traders from buying soybeans from lands deforested after 2008.

The incentive to knock down the forest is driven by the profit that can be gleaned from the materials that lie beneath, what can be grown or grazed on top, plus the value of the felled timber. High commodity prices, coupled with a weakening in the Brazilian real (a regular feature under Bolsonaro's rule), increases the political pressure to extend into the Amazon.

A change in political leadership threatens Brazil's forests, but it could also negatively affect many of Brazil's other signature climate policies. Key climate initiatives at risk of being paused, or worse cancelled, include the Brazilian emissions trading scheme and the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF); the latter a mechanism meant to pay countries to leave their trees standing.