Up in the air

"Waiting for a train to go or a bus to come,
or a plane to go or the mail to come,
or the rain to go or the phone to ring,
or the snow to snow or waiting around for a Yes or No
or waiting for their hair to grow.

Everyone is just waiting."

- The Waiting Place, by Dr Seuss

When it comes to decarbonising its aircraft, Europe's aviation sector is stuck waiting in the departure lounge. The screens are telling operators that everything is on schedule and now is the time to invest in new aircraft, secure sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and hedge your carbon price risk.

But as any weary business traveller knows, you should never discount the possibility that delays or cancellations will hamper the best laid plans. Instead of getting the next flight home you're being bussed to a hotel on the outside of town and next morning face taking a train to another airport, hundred of miles away.

The challenge facing Europe's aviation sector as it looks to decarbonise while remaining competitive is no different.

The blocs aviation industry have to contend with the rapid phase-out of free allocations under the EU ETS, a severe supply shortage under CORSIA coupled with uncertainty as to whether the EU will just roll EU departure emissions into the EU ETS, and finally, the one main lever the industry is relying on - SAF - is not developing at anywhere near the speed necessary to avoid a big carbon bill later this decade.

Beware the waiting place.